The legislature will convene January 10, 2011, but will go home on January 13. Will the work be done? Certainly not, but the Oregon Constitution mandates legislators begin their terms on the second Monday in January of odd numbered years. And, with the assembly’s call to order, the printing of bills can begin. Usually committees meet and people work in a more lackadaisical manner as we standby for the bills to be published. In this dramatic change, committee and chamber session work will halt until February 1, by which time most of the publishing will be done and the legislators will return. This change will also decrease legislative costs, as members will not receive a per diem for the bulk of January.

Due to the passage of the ballot measure for annual sessions that limited the number of days, the legislative session will end by June 30 (160 days). It would take 2/3rds of legislators to approve extension beyond that time. The even numbered year sessions are limited to 35 days. The House of Representatives is split 30 Republicans and 30 Democrats and at this point it looks like they will opt for a power sharing arrangement that includes two Speakers (likely Roblan and Hanna) and two chairs for each committee. On the Senate side, Democrats will still be in the majority, but this time by just 16 to 14. Senator Peter Courtney, who became the mutually agreed upon Senate President when the Senate was split 15-15 in 2003, will retain his rule over the chamber.

The most pressing issues to be addressed will be the final balancing of the 2009-11 budget and the adoption of a budget for 2011-13. For the current biennium, the December revenue forecast shows an increase of $61.9 million in General Fund dollars from the September 2010 forecast. The final budget reconciliation numbers will come mid-May when we will find out if drastic cuts need to be made for the last two months of the two-year budget, or if,
perhaps, we have some money leftover that can be rolled into the next biennium.

Unfortunately, the State fiscal managers anticipate a $3.5 billion shortfall in expected revenue as opposed to projected needs for the 2011-2013 biennium. That is a 20% gap in our general fund budget. The State Budget Office has also stated that without a major change now, the gap stays the same going into future. So, temporary cuts will likely become permanent, and new cuts will certainly be sought.

The Budget Office will recommend doing the following, which will take care of about $2 billion: Maintain allotment cuts - Saves $1.05 billion
• Eliminate 2% general inflation in formula - Saves $142 million
• Cut in half the personal services expected growth (11% to 5.5%) - Saves $400 million
• Other small Reset Cabinet suggestions - Saves $300 million

The other $1 billion will require new ideas, or a significant change in State revenue to offset.
The close division in party numbers and the budget issues our State continues to face will make this the least “policy-oriented” legislative session in my 20+ years of lobbying. The Legislative Fiscal Office will be on a high alert to shed light on any legislation that may take dollars out of the general fund, lobbyists will find it hard to get a majority to be interested in their issues, and these two hurdles put together will put the kibosh on most pieces of
legislation.

New Year – new environment – new political dynamic – new relationships and power struggles…but one thing that is the same as always: you can reach me with any concerns, questions or just for political conversation at 503-260-3431.

Cindy Robert
December 27, 2010